The Telegram newspaper reported that Poland’s security sources say the US warned Poland that Russia could carry out a limited military action on Polish territory in the coming months to test NATO’s collective defense.
Possible scenarios include missile or drone strikes on critical infrastructure, cyber and hybrid attacks, or a limited ground incursion from Kaliningrad or Belarus, possibly presented as a mistake or accidental incident.
Polish and Baltic security officials believe Moscow’s goal would be to create a political crisis to pressure Western countries into reducing or halting military aid to Ukraine, without starting a full‑scale war with NATO.
In one scenario, Russian or Belarusian forces could claim they accidentally crossed the border during a GPS glitch or a rescue mission, allowing Moscow to use the withdrawal as leverage to negotiate a halt to Western aid to Ukraine.