US consumer confidence indicators suggest further weakening in the labor market. The gap between consumers who say finding a job is easy versus those who say it is difficult narrowed to 2.4 points in June, the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Only 24.9% of consumers believe job opportunities are plentiful, down from roughly 55% in 2022. Meanwhile, 22.5% say finding a job is difficult, the highest level since January 2021. Historically, this indicator has been one of the most reliable leading predictors of rising unemployment, now suggesting US unemployment could climb from the current 4.2% to around 6%.
The labor force participation rate, measuring the share of employed or job-seeking individuals in the working-age population, fell to 61.5% in June, the lowest since June 1976 excluding the COVID period. The labor force also shrank by 720,000 people to 169.36 million, the lowest since December 2024.
Overall, these data suggest the US labor market may be weaker than headline employment figures indicate.