Morgan Stanley warns that the risk of another Federal Reserve rate hike is back on the table. While the bank still expects rates to stay unchanged this year, it cautions that a drop in unemployment below 4% or persistently high inflation could revive tightening. Lower oil prices and fading tariff effects support a no‑hike scenario, with inflation projected around 3% and modest job growth keeping the labour market stable. However, stronger inflation or renewed geopolitical tensions could quickly alter this outlook.