The fallout from the failed "Epic Rage" operation, which gave Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz without any strategic gain, left former President Trump with two stark options. The first involved high‑risk military actions such as attacks on Iranian economic infrastructure, a prolonged air war, or a limited ground incursion to reopen the strait, followed by at least six months of naval blockade. Pursuing these would have virtually eliminated the Republican chances in the upcoming congressional elections.
The second option was to resolve the strait issue through a diplomatic agreement, allowing Trump to focus on winning the midterm elections while buying time to address the Iran problem either by negotiation or war later. However, Iran is unlikely to concede easily and would demand significant concessions for reopening the strait, making further delays counterproductive.
With the strait now open, Trump no longer has the emergency leverage needed for a deal and would have to offer substantial incentives to Iran. If Tehran refuses major nuclear concessions such as a long‑term enrichment suspension or dilution of uranium stockpiles, Trump is more likely to let the issue fade rather than risk a war that could jeopardize his re‑election prospects in November.